The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyzes developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and around the world. IFIMES made an analysis of the current political situation in the Republic of Albania in the context of the local elections, scheduled to take place on 14 May 2023. We bring the most important and interesting parts of the extensive analysis « 2023 Local Elections in Albania: Choice between Drug Cartels and/or Parliamentary Republic? »
2023 Local Elections in Albania:
In the Republic of Albania the next local elections are scheduled to take place on 14 May 2023. The last local elections, which were held on 30 June 2019, were boycotted by the opposition, while the turnout at the elections was only 21.6%. As a result, all positions in local self-governance authorities were occupied by the candidates of the Socialist Party (PS) headed by Edi Rama. The last local elections in Albania were conducted in an atmosphere of tensions, after the Albanian opposition had withdrawn from the work of the Parliament and organized political activities on the streets of Tirana at which it requested the resignation of Prime Minister Rama, establishment of an interim government and holding of general elections.
At the local elections a total of 3,650,550 eligible voters will be able to vote at 5,211 polling stations. Forty-eight political parties with 23,788 candidates will participate at the local elections. Out of the total number, 144 candidates, including 15 women, aspire to become presidents of municipalities. The elections will be monitored by 324 international observers of the OSCE/ODIHR. Albania has 61 municipalities, and the country needs a thorough reform of local self-governance.
Albania was granted the EU candidate status in September 2014. The country opened the accession negotiations with the EU in late 2022. The list of issues that Albania needs to address include judicial reform, fight against crime (drug trafficking and human trafficking) and corruption, lack of independent media, depoliticization of institutions, improved efficiency, as well as establishment of a more dynamic dialogue between the government and the opposition with the aim of making the reforms more comprehensive and swift. Political pressures, intimidation, corruption and limited resources have prevented the judiciary from becoming fully functional, independent and effective. The corruption is omnipresent in all the segments and all levels of the government, including the areas of public procurement and public-private partnerships. Edi Rama’s government was not successful in the mitigation of economic and social consequences of the triple earthquakes from 2019.
An inevitable question for Edi Rama is why is Albania still by far the poorest country in Europe, although it has exceptional potential for development? Both the EU and NATO failed with respect to resolution of the political crisis in Albania. However, the crisis in Albania has exposed Edi Rama’s corruption network, which includes some (former) senior officials of the EU, US and some other countries.
The results of pre-election polls in Albania do not always offer credible indicators of the opinion of the electorate with respect to how the public will vote on the day of elections. However, the results of polls are used as the basis for determination of election strategies, debates and analysis.
In Albania violent crime is often associated with organized crime, but also with judges, prosecutors, police and media, who are often subject to intimidation. The relatively weak rule of law, corruption and high unemployment level are the main Albanian problems with respect to control of drug trafficking. Criminal justice reforms in Albania should include removal of judges and prosecutors connected with organized crime and/or with unjustifiable wealth. The US support judicial reforms in Albania through advisory support and development of capacities for SPAK prosecutors and investigators, enhanced interagency cooperation in the investigations, corrections of reforms aimed to limit the operations of transnational organized crime. Furthermore, the US have also offered to provide specialized equipment for improvement of respective operational capabilities. Albania must continue with the judicial reform, enhance the regulations and supervision against money laundering and work on the elimination of influence of organized crime on the Albanian government and society.
The special structure for fight against corruption and organized crime (SPAK), which includes the Special Prosecution Office (SPO) and the National Investigation Bureau (NBI), is under-capacitated. While progress has been achieved with respect to confiscation of property associated with organized crime, it needs to be further intensified in the future. Furthermore, it is also necessary to continue the efforts aimed to achieve increased criminal prosecution and better enforcement of final and binding judgements, particularly at the high level. Fight against cyber-crime, human trafficking and money laundering remain areas in which additional results are required. An indicator of the situation in Albania is also an increased number of Albanian citizens who have filed asylum requests in EU member countries. Adoption of tax and criminal amnesty is contrary to the stance of the EU Council and Moneyval and can undermine progress in this area, as well as in the fight against money laundering.
»Albania remains vulnerable to money laundering due to corruption, the presence of organized crime networks, and gaps in legislation and supervision. Albania has a large cash economy and informal sector, with significant remittance and investment money inflows from abroad. Narcotics trafficking and other organized crime activity are the major sources of laundered funds. Albanian criminal organizations have links with networks operating broadly across Europe and in South America.«[3]
Frequent scandals with international dimensions expose links between Rama’s regime and international factors and the corruption of foreign officials (case of former FBI official Charles McGonigal). Establishment and strengthening of several governmental agencies associated with Prime Minister Rama (Agency for Co-Governance, Media and Information Agency, Agency for Strategic Programing and Aid Coordination – SASPAC) without a comprehensive management framework and with no systemic oversight of supervision and reporting lines, raise questions regarding effective coordination and provision of services by public administration bodies.
Analysts believe that the upcoming elections in Albania transcend the character and relevance of local elections, because they are an opportunity to embark on the final showdown with Edi Rama’s regime and decriminalization of Albania. Alliance between Sali Berisha and Ilir Meta through the « Together We Win » coalition brings together opposition political forces and represents a mass movement of discontented citizens of Albania ready to engage in a fight for the final showdown with the drug cartels, crime and corruption. The local elections are a kind of an opportunity for the citizens of Albania to choose whether they wish to have a drug cartel rule the country and/or a parliamentary republic- of which the citizens have been predominantly robbed and deprived over the past 10 years. The elections have to be transparent, free and fair, without purchase of voters and voters with « black money, » that is dirty money from drug businesses and human trafficking. Namely, revenues from drug businesses exceed the Albanian national budget. The political concept of retention of Edi Rama in power is based on the purchase of votes and intimidation, and Rama has unlimited amounts of money of dubious origin and a repressive apparatus at his disposal for such purposes.
The processes in the region, which were initially commenced in North Macedonia, are gradually eliminating the proponents of destabilization, crime and corruption, such as Nikola Gruevski (VMRO-DPMNE), Hashim Thaci (PDK), Bojko Borisov (GERB), and after the fall of Milo Đukanović (DPS), next in the line are Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Edi Rama (PS). It was not without reason that Edi Rama had openly supported Milo Đukanović at the recently held elections in Montenegro, because by supporting Đukanović he was supporting himself, as well as his similar concept and method of rule.
Judging by everything, the local elections will cause establishment of an interim government that will organize early parliamentary elections and a peaceful transition of government. Edi Rama’s biggest « success » is that during his tenure he had strengthened the position of Albania as by far the poorest country in Europe.
Ljubljana/Brussels/Washington/Tirana, 10 May 2023
Footnotes:
[1] IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) from Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)/UN since 2018. and it’s publisher of the international scientific journal »European Perspectives«.
[3] Source: International Narcotics Control Strategy Report Volume II Money Laundering March 2022, link: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/22-00768-INCSR-2022-Vol-2.pdf p. 33